A new report from exhibition analyst Eric Handler of MKM Partners predicts that there is a “low likelihood” of Christopher Nolan’s Tenet being released on August 12 as planned. The bad news doesn’t end there: Handler also states that box office grosses in 2020 will drop a whopping 70% from last year’s numbers.
“The near-term outlook for exhibition related stocks remains extremely clouded,” Handler said. Yeah, ain’t that the truth.
The news about Tenet’s inevitable delay isn’t surprising. The movie was originally going to open on July 17. That date was then changed to July 31, then August 12. Since the second delay, cases of coronavirus have continued to skyrocket, promising that this pandemic isn’t anywhere close to done. So of course another delay for Tenet seems certain now. The only question is how long will this next delay be? Will Warner Bros and Nolan still cling to a summer opening for the mind-bending thriller? Or will they throw in the towel and toss the movie to a late fall/early winter release? Let’s be honest, that is their best option. It will be awhile before enclosed spaces, like movie theaters, are safe for gathering. Even if the COVID-19 numbers start declining today, an August 12 opening still wouldn’t be safe. And most people don’t want to risk their health any time soon either.
If (when) Tenet gets postponed, it’ll have a massive domino effect on other films tentatively scheduled to open in the coming weeks. Say goodbye to Mulan and the other movies desperately hoping for a summer release. While we’re at it, we can also say goodbye to the idea of theaters playing classic films in the weeks leading up to Tenet. If the movie is indeed pushed back again, theaters should just keep things closed and focus on preparing for an eventual opening in fall or winter. People do want to see movies on the big screen again, they just want to do it when it’s safe. So business will return, just not soon enough.
This is a scary time for theater chains and studios. It’s especially scary for companies like AMC, who were already experiencing money problems before the pandemic hit. “Extremely clouded” is a polite way of describing the future of movie theaters. The road ahead looks like downright terrifying.
Source: Deadline